AMAP Project Directory

The development of methods for the accurate prediction of the extreme response of non-linear dynamic systems which use less computer time than presently commom methods.

- To support the further development of a geocryological database for the Usa Basin (East-European Russian Arctic), including key characteristics of permafrost such as distribution, coverage, temperature, active layer, etc. - To create GIS-based permafrost maps at the scale of 1:1,000,000 for the entire Usa Basin and at 1:100,000 for selected key sites. - To reconstruct the history of permafrost dynamics at key sites in the region over the last thousands of years using palaeoecological analysis and radiocarbon dating of peat deposits, and over the last few decades using remote sensing imagery and/or monitoring (base case scenario). - To predict permafrost dynamics at key sites in the region under future conditions of climate change (20-100 yrs), using a 1-dimensional permafrost model (future global change scenario). - To assess the effects of permafrost dynamics under base case and global change scenarios on urban, industrial and transportation infrastructure in the Usa Basin. Research activities Based on several representative sites, late Holocene permafrost dynamics will be characterized using palaeoecological techniques. Variability in permafrost conditions over the last few decades will be studied based on the available data from long-term monitoring station records and from a time series of remote sensing images (optional). Mathematical modelling of permafrost dynamics will be carried out for at least two sites and a forecast of permafrost degradation in the area under anticipated climate warming will be developed. The likely effects of permafrost degradation upon regional infrastructure (inhabited localities, heat and power engineering, coal and ore mines, oil and gas extracting complex, pipelines and railways) will be analyzed using a GIS approach. GIS data layers on permafrost dynamics and infrastructure will be compared in order to delimitate high risk areas based on existing infrastructure and anticipated permafrost degradation. Hereafter, the created GIS may serve as a basis for more detailed forecasting of permafrost dynamics under both natural and anthropogenic climate changes in lowland and alpine areas of the East-European Russian Arctic.

The aim of this project is to assess the deposition of HM/POP over Europe and to evaluate models. Within the framework of UN-ECE, EMEP Meteorological Synthesising Centre-East (MSC-E Moscow) organised in co-operation with RIVM, a model intercomparison for operational transport models on HM in 1995. In this intercomparison the RIVM will participate with the TREND-model. Results of the intercomparison will also be reported to the OSPAR commission. A model comparison for POPs will follow later. The RIVM/EUROS model is extended with soil and surface water modules in order to improve the description of the exchange process of POPs (deposition and re-emission). With the model, long-term averages of the deposition and accumulatation of POPs are described and scenario-studies can be carried out. In the first instance, Lindane and B(a)P will be taken as examples of POPs dominantly present respectively in the gas phase and attached to particles. When emissions are available the calculations are extended to other POPs.

In 1990, the Directorate for Nature Management (DN) established an area for integrated monitoring within Børgefjell National Park, Røyrvik, N Trøndelag. Studies of vegetation-environment relationships in the area was performed by NINA. The area includes both subalpine birch forest and low alpine heath. The new established vegetation investigation included all together 80 different species. This material was processed numerically by using multivariate methods. Indirect gradient analyses were performed using Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Local Nonmetric Multidimentional Scaling (LNMDS). Direct gradient analyses were performed by using rescaled hybrid Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Non-parametric correlation analyses, Kendall’s , were performed between environmental parameters and DCA axis values. The results of the numerical and statistical processing were used partly to provide a description of the vegetational structure in the material and partly to quantify how much each ecological parameters contributed to determination of vegetational structure. This work shows the species distribution along various complex gradients; moisture, nutrient conditions, light etc. The investigation is primarily designed to study vegetation dynamics along these gradients and whether changes in the number of species can be related to changes in physical, biotic and, not least, chemical parameters. Variance analysis was performed to assess to what extent the sample plots tends move in a determined direction from 1990 to 1995. The variation between the years were not significant along the primary complex gradients, but there were a significant displacement of species along the following gradients. The most important species were: Vaccinium vitis-idaea, Melampyrum sylvaticum and Hylocomium splendens), which showed an increase and some cryptogams like Brachythecium reflexum, B. salebrosum and Cladonia ecmocyna which declined.

1) To perform simulation scenarios for the 21st century, including global warming scenarios, of potential radioactive spreading from sources in the Russian Arctic coastal zone and its impact on Barents, Greenland and Norwegian Seas and the Arctic Ocean; 2) To update the environmental and pollution data base of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP); 3) To assess, select and define the most probable simulation scenarios for accidental releases of radionuclides; 4) To implement a Generic Model System (GMS) consisting of several nested models designed to simulate radionuclides transport through rivers, in the Kara sea and in the Arctic ocean / North Atlantic; 5) To carry out simulation studies for the selected "release" scenarios of radionuclides, using various atmospheric forcing scenarios; 6) Assess the impact on potential radioactive spreading from sources as input to risk management.

To assess potential levels of radionuclides input into the Kara sea from existing and potential sources of technogenic radioactivity, located on the land in the Ob- and Yenisey rivers watersheds. Specific Objectives * To reveal and estimate a) most hazardous technogenic sources of radioactive contamination in the Ob- and Yenisey watersheds and b) the most possible and dangerous natural and technogenic (antrophogenic) situations (in the regions of these sources) that may result in release of radionuclides into the environment and may lead to significant changes in the radioactive contamination of the Kara sea * To estimate parameters of radionuclides (potential amount, composition, types etc.) under release to the environment from chosen sources as a result of accidents as well as during migration from the sources to the Kara sea through river systems * To set up a dedicated Database and a Geographic Information System (GIS) for modelling transport of radionuclides from the land-based sources to the Kara sea * To develop and create a dedicated model tool for simulation of radionuclides transport from land-based sources through Ob- and Yenisey river systems to the Kara sea

In 1994, analyses of sediments and fish from Lake Ellasjøen on Bear Island revealed a surprising scenario. The analytical results indicated some of the highest values of the contaminants PCB and DDT in freshwater sediments and fish ever found in the Arctic. The 1994 results were based on limited amounts of samples. During 1996 and 1997 there were carried out new sampling and analyses of several samples. These results verify the results found in 1994. Since the POP-patterns found deviate considerably from the typical patterns expected for local contamination, no local source can be assumed to be responsible for the high POP values found. Thus, the questions that need to be addressed include the source of these contaminants, the transport pathways that deliver these contaminants to this site, total deposition and finally contaminant fate including biological uptake and effects. Previous investigations from the early 80’s on high volume air samples carried out at Bear Island revealed several long-range transport episodes from Eastern Europe. The overall objective of this project is to contribute significant new information to the understanding of contaminant pathways in the Arctic hydrosphere and to provide a better understanding of contaminant focusing in a sensitive polar environment. This will be accomplished through the development of a comprehensive mass balance study of the atmospheric loadings of PCBs and other contaminants to the Lake Ellasjøen watershed to determine the seasonal importance of atmospheric deposition on a remote polar island. Further, effort will be directed at assessing the relative importance of various source regions of contaminants to the island through an evaluation of contaminant signatures and back trajectories of pollution events.

To investigate the impacts of Russia's military and civilian nuclear activities in the Kola Bay and adjacent areas of the northwest Arctic coast of Russia.

(1) Collate information relating to the environmental transfer and fate of selected radionuclides through aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the Arctic. (2) Identify reference Arctic biota that can be used to evaluate potential dose rates to biota in different terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments (3) Model the uptake of a suite of radionuclides, both natural and anthropogenic to reference Arctic biota (4) Develop a reference set of dose models for reference Arctic biota (5) Compile data on dose-effects relationships and assessments of potential radiological consequences for reference Arctic biota (6) Integrate assessments of environmental impact from radionuclides with those for other contaminants.

The project aims to carry out an environmental assessment of the marine environment close to the three main settlements in the Isfjorden complex; Barentsburg, Longyearbyen and Pyramiden. The study comprises analyses of sediment geochemistry and soft-bottom benthic fauna. Attention is given to distinguishing atmospheric transport of contaminants from those arising from local sources.

Our projects will investigate the effects of radioactive wastes on marine ecosystems. Two marine ecosystems have been chosen for projects: 1) the dumping site for low level radioactive waste in the north-east Atlantic and 2) the western part of the Barents Sea. The data on the radioecology of North Sea and Baltic Sea obtained in our long-time monitoring programmes will serve as a basis for the interpretation of the project´s results.

Our broad area of enquiry is the role of polar regions in the global energy and water cycles, and the atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes that determine that role. The primary importance of our investigation is to show how these polar processes relate to global climate.

Our central geophysical objective is to determine how sea ice and the polar oceans respond to and influence the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere. Our primary technical objective is to determine how best to incorporate satellite measurements in an ice/ocean model.

To understand and model the processes by which Arctic deep water is formed on continental shelves by the modification of inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters.

To develop the next-generation Navy operational ice thickness and movement model.

In 2000 it is proposed to operate an atmospheric programme consisting of a monitoring and a modelling part and composed of 3 programme modules. The monitoring programme consists of two parts. I. It is proposed to continue the weekly measurements of acidifying components and heavy metals at Station Nord in north-east Greenland for assessment of atmospheric levels and trends. The measuring programme includes also highly time resolved measurements of Ozone and of total gaseous Mercury (TGM). The results will also be used for continued development and verification of the transport model calculations. Receptor modelling of the pollution composition will be used for identification and quantification of the source types that influence the atmospheric pollution in north-east Greenland. Comparison of the two sets of modelling results is expected to give better models. II. The purpose of the project is the operation of a permanent air monitoring programme in the populated West Greenland at a location which is representative for transboundary air pollution. The most promising sites are located in the Disko Bay area and in the vicinity of Nuuk. The objectives are to obtain data on the concentration levels of air pollutants that can be used for assessing seasonal variations and trends and for studying long range transport of pollutants mainly from North America to West Greenland. The purpose is further to provide data for development and improvement of long range transport models that can be used to identify the origin of the pollution and its transport pathways. The results from measurements and model calculations will be used to assess the magnitude of deposition to sea and land in this populated region of Greenland. III. In the proposed modelling programme the operation, application and maintenance of the current basic hemispheric model will be continued. Results on origin, transport, and deposition of contaminants on land and sea surfaces in the Arctic are essential for interpretation and understanding the Arctic air pollution. The model will be developed to improve the spatial and temporal resolutions, as well as the accuracy by including physically and mathematically better descriptions of the key processes treated in the model. The work to expand the model to include also non-volatile heavy metals, such as Cadmium and Lead on an hemispheric scale will be continued. Since the atmospheric chemistry of Ozone and Mercury seem to be strongly connected in the Arctic it is planned to continue the development and testing of a model module for hemispheric transport and chemistry for ozone and mercury to assess the origin and fate of this highly toxic metal in the Arctic.

The objectives of this project are: A) to determine the pathway for the transfer of mercury in snowmelt to sea water during the melt period at Alert; B) to determine the extent of open water and wet ice in the summer Arctic as it affects the surface exchange of Hg using satellite radar imagery; and C) to determine the atmospheric dynamics associated with the photochemistry of mercury episodically during the polar sunrise period.