1) To perform simulation scenarios for the 21st century, including global warming scenarios, of potential radioactive spreading from sources in the Russian Arctic coastal zone and its impact on Barents, Greenland and Norwegian Seas and the Arctic Ocean; 2) To update the environmental and pollution data base of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP); 3) To assess, select and define the most probable simulation scenarios for accidental releases of radionuclides; 4) To implement a Generic Model System (GMS) consisting of several nested models designed to simulate radionuclides transport through rivers, in the Kara sea and in the Arctic ocean / North Atlantic; 5) To carry out simulation studies for the selected "release" scenarios of radionuclides, using various atmospheric forcing scenarios; 6) Assess the impact on potential radioactive spreading from sources as input to risk management.
1) Creation of a dedicated Database of historical environmental in situ and remote sensing data for Russian Arctic coastal zone and other regions relevant for Project purposes yet not present in the AMAP data base; 2) Collection and systematisation of environmental radioactivity data for the Arctic region that are not present in the AMAP database; 3) Update the AMAP database by environmental and pollution data collected under 1) and 2); 4) Specification and substantiation of the most probable scenarios of accidental radionuclide releases influencing the Arctic environment and their transport from external sources to the Arctic Sea for numerical modelling of hypothetical situations on the selected sources; 5) Implementation of Generic Model System (GMS) with a validated medium resolution (50 km) 3 D numerical ice-ocean model for the Arctic and North Atlantic ocean nested with a validated high resolution (5 km) model for the Kara Sea including a sediment module nested with a validated river transport model to be used for simulation studies; 6) Simulation studies for the selected "release" scenarios of radionuclides, using the following atmospheric forcing scenarios, including global warming, likely consistent with a CO2 doubling: a) Realistic run - using historical synoptic 41 years of atmospheric forcing fields with temporal resolution every 6 hours, during the period 1958 - 1998; b) Control run - using forcing for the next 100 years to 2100; c) Global warming simulations using CO2 doubling forcing conditions to study the impact from global warming on radioactive spreading; 7) Assessment of impact on potential radioactive spreading from sources located within the Russian Arctic coastal zone and rivers based on the simulation results, including global warming impact, as input to a risk management decision making system.
1. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, N 2. Risoe National Laboratory, DK 3.Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, RU 4. V.G.Khlopin Radium Institute; RU 5. Institute of Mathematical Machines and Systems Problems, UA 6. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, Int. 7 Norwegian Radiation Protection Agency, N
European Community for Research, Technological development and Demonstration activities. Fifth Framework Programme - Confirming the International Role of Community Research. INCO-COPERNICUS 2
Study of influence of land-based sources of radionuclides on radioactive contamination of Kara sea through Ob- and Yenisey river systems